Nearly all of the likely voters, or 94 percent, said their minds were made up about their chosen candidate, leaving 6 percent who might change their mind before the November election. Barnes sought. Now, it's Barnes who is relatively unknown among Wisconsin voters. And, that's a little depressing, isn't it? The lieutenant governor and former State Assembly member is expected to face a difficult campaign as he seeks to unseat Johnson, who has served in the Senate since 2011. In the September survey, Johnsons lead among that group was 48% to 46%. The. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates both the Senate and gubernatorial races as toss-ups. The incumbents leads were reversed, however, when the CNN poll results were expanded to include all registered voters in the state. Adam Edelman is a political reporter for NBC News. Ron Johnson (R-WI) and his Democratic challenger, Lt. Gov. The race between Johnson and Barnes was rated as "tilt Republican" by Inside Elections, a "toss-up" by The Cook Political Report, and "leans Republican" by Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. MADISON, Wis. (AP) U.S. Senate Republican Ron Johnson and Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes got personal in their final debate Thursday before the Nov. 8 election, with each candidate . Johnson has downplayed the violent insurrection at the U.S. Capitol that day on Jan. 6, where Trump supporters assaulted Capitol police officers as they tried to stop Congress from certifying President Joe Biden's 2020 victory. You can follow him on Twitter @timothynerozzi and can email him at timothy.nerozzi@fox.com. Johnson got a boost from voters' concerns about crime and economic issues, while Barnes had strong support from voters who saw abortion as one of the top issues. Johnson had built a small lead in most polls over Barnes though within the margin of error after he began his relentless focus on crime, and his victory suggests the strategy was a success. However, in 2016 former President Donald Trump narrowly carried the state with a margin of about 0.7 percent. Lt. Gov. It occurred concurrently with a Senate election in the state, elections to the state's U.S. House seats, and various other elections.Incumbent Republican Governor Scott Walker sought re-election to a third term, and was challenged by Democratic candidate and then-Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers, as well . With 98 percent of votes counted, AP results showed Johnson defeating Barnes 50.5 percent to 49.5 percent. That number had fallen to 9 percent in Marquette's Aug. 17 poll. Ron Johnson and Mandela Barnes in tight Senate race in Wisconsin CBS News Battleground Tracker poll. Market data provided by Factset. Since then, Johnson has hired one of Wisconsin's 10 fake electors to work for his reelection campaign, and he's spent more than $20,000 for legal consultation with a Wisconsin law firm that assisted former President Donald Trump's efforts to overturn the state's 2020 election results. The poll from Marquette Law School suggests Johnson, a. On the other hand, Mandela Barnes said he agreed to be a part of the debate anchored by the Main Street Alliance and the Wisconsin Farmers Union because the group commonly lines up with the democrats. . Democrats won or held onto key seats, including John Fettermans win over Republican Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania. Although Wisconsin's primary won't take place until August 9, Barnes, who was already leading in the polls, is all but guaranteed to secure the Democratic nomination. Barnes has seen a decline in the polls over recent months after facing a slew of attack ads depicting him as soft on crime. Yorkshire Post. Liberal groups in Wisconsin seeking to change rules governing absentee ballots suffered a blow this week after an appeals court and a circuit judge ruled that ballots cannot contain partial addresses of witnesses. Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Biden garnered 49.5 percent four years later. The AP called the race after Johnson claimed his win earlier in the morning and other national media outlets such as NBC News,CBS News, and CNN projected Johnson would win. Sign up for notifications from Insider! This race is over," Johnson said in the statement. The CNN poll was conducted Oct. 13-17 and surveyed 905 registered Wisconsin voters, 714 of whom were likely voters. Some ads focused on positions Barnes had taken or statements he had made such as his support for ending cash bail and saying that reducing prison populations is now sexy while others made misleading claims about his tenure as the state's lieutenant governor, like accusing his administration of having paroled hundreds of violent offenders. You've successfully subscribed to this newsletter! The Wisconsin Senate candidate Mandela Barnes speaks at a rally on Saturday in Milwaukee. The Oshkosh Republican led Barnes, a Democrat, 51% to 46% among likely voters in a poll commissioned by AARP. The Democrat became the state's first Black lieutenant governor when he took office in 2019. A spokesperson for Johnson's campaign told Wisconsin Public Radio they "don't put much stock in public polls.". Legal Statement. Market data provided by Factset. He pulled ahead of Barnes in recent polling after a September onslaught of negative ads that painted Barnes as a soft-on-crime, radical liberal. Barnes became Wisconsin's first Black lieutenant governor in 2018 and he would become the state's first Black U.S. senator if he defeats Johnson. (Last month, the Republican-controlled state Legislatureblocked initial effortsto get that question on the ballot.). Mandela Barnes, clashed on crime and Jan. 6 as they tussled during their first debate on Friday.. Moderator and veteran newscaster . Mandela Barnes. That means Barnes' narrow lead is well within the survey's margin of error. This week . Notably, the margin of error was 4.5 percentage points. Among all registered voters surveyed, it's a much closer race. Part of the shift can be attributed to likely independent voters. Updated on: November 9, 2022 / 11:38 AM The senator has been tied to the fake elector scheme, which is being investigated by the U.S. Department of Justice, after text messages came to light showing Johnson's office tried to get slates of fake electoral ballots from Wisconsin and Michigan to former Vice President Mike Pence on Jan. 6, 2021. The small margins indicate a tight race with the midterms just two weeks away. The CBS News/YouGov poll was released on Sunday. Mandela Barnes, a Democrat trailing in Wisconsin polls and getting hammered by an onslaught of negative television advertising in his race to unseat Senator Ron Johnson, a. However, the most recent polling for the race suggests that Barnes is narrowly ahead of the incumbent. Marquette's August survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percent. Independent candidate Joan Beglinger who ended her campaign in September but will still be on the ballot garnered 4% in the poll, while 1% of respondents said they were undecided. Timothy Nerozzi is a writer for Fox News Digital. 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The Marquette poll found that more voters had a favorable opinion of him than not, but 30 percent said they haven't heard enough about Barnes. MIDTERM STUDY FINDS MAINSTREAM MEDIA GAVE REPUBLICANS 87% MORE NEGATIVE COVERAGE THAN DEMOCRATS. But, you know, I'm not going to declare victory until all the numbers are in. making false or misleading claims about the shots, Johnson has hired one of Wisconsin's 10 fake electors, most expensive election contests in the country, settle the abortion issue via a direct referendum, Bernie Sanders endorses Mandela Barnes for US Senate, Ron Johnson calls for annual approval of Social Security, Medicare funding, Democratic Lt. Gov. But there are key differences this year, said Chergosky. On two large screens, the audience at the Johnson event quietly watched Fox News election coverage and let out loud groans and boos when Democrats were projected to win other high-profile federal races. In a general election match up, Mandela beats Ron Johnson by 2 points, more than any of his opponents. (AP Photo/Morry Gash) Among the slightly larger sample of 802 registered voters, Johnson maintains 48% support. InWisconsin's Senate race between Republican Sen. Ron Johnson and Democratic Lt. Gov. ", Barnes did not take the stage on election night. I want to thank my family and everyone who supported me and worked so hard to save this U.S. Senate seat. Barnes to overcome his 27,374 vote deficit. their first televised debate, held on Friday, discussing, have hammered Barnes and other Democratic candidates, What we learned from the NBC News Fetterman interview, Midterm elections roundup: Arizona debate debacle, California poll: Homelessness is most urgent issue in the state. Ron Johnson has turned up the volume on the issue of race in his closing message to base voters, whose support will be crucial in his tight contest against Mandela Barnes, who would be the state's . In the new poll, registered Wisconsin voters said the issue they were most concerned about was inflation, followed by public schools, gun violence, abortion policy and crime. Mandela Barnes faced off Thursday in their second debate, clashing over crime and abortion in a series of heated exchanges.. In the June poll released by Marquette Law School testing each candidate's strength against Johnson, Barnes hits or approaches those benchmarks, while Lasry falls far short of the numbers needed . In Marquette's September poll, Evers led Michels among likely voters 47% to 44%. Republican U.S. Senate candidate Ron Johnson, right, and Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Mandela Barnes participate during a televised debate Thursday, Oct. 13, 2022, in Milwaukee. "He's not in a place, in terms of his favorability and unfavorability numbers, where an incumbent senator would want to be," Chergosky said. Johnson struck a somber note when reflecting on the closeness of his race. One percent of respondents said they would vote for neither candidate and 1% said they were undecided. Powered and implemented by FactSet Digital Solutions. Marquette Law School defines "likely voters" as those "who say they are certain to vote or who say they have already voted. When Johnson first ran for public office in 2010 and even during his first reelection bid, Chergosky said many voters hadn't yet formed an opinion. If Barnes were to win, he'd become Wisconsin's first Black senator. Senator Ron Johnson 's support appears to be slipping with Wisconsin voters entering the closing months of the state's midterm elections, a new poll says. Top Sheboygan officials lacked key details on police department sexual harassment probes, State lawmakers try again to allow DACA recipients to become police officers in Wisconsin, Tired of waiting, a Wisconsin island community is directing millions to create its own high-speed internet. Mandela Barnes during a debate on Oct. 7. 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